Maybe this is common knowledge, but the Golden State Warriors are basically as bad as it gets ATS this season…only the Knicks are worse and at home it’s even worse going 14-23-1 ATS. Various reasons are integral to such a poor Vegas season: inflated lines due to rings, Steph, always being a favorite, a win is a win in real life cover or not, extremely public team, every team giving their best shot, and most of all- injuries/load management.
Event: (585) Denver Nuggets at (586) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: April 2, 2019 10PM EDT
Play: Golden State Warriors -8.0 (-110)
Only 3 NBA teams didn’t play once as a home dog this season with the Raps and Bucks from the East joining the Dubs. While all 3 teams won most of those contests, only the Bucks were even near impressive ATS proving it is difficult to cover big spreads night in and night out. The Bucks have been very good ATS but Vegas adjustments were bound to lag at least a little bit jumping from 7th best in the East to best team in NBA overall in one season.
To the matter at hand, only 1 single game this season laying less than their home average of 9+ has the regular (absurd) starting 5 been available for a home game for GSW this season…and it was last time these 2 faced one another, with the same -8 line and the Warriors cruised through a first half slaughter to doubling up the spread. The old big 4 all had over +20 in +/- and they forced Jokic and Murray to each have a -30 while on the court. The Nuggets haven’t looked like their dominant selves from earlier in the season, but in this doldrums of a stretch run they actually visit Oracle tonight with the ability to win and get back on top of the Western conference race for the 1 seed.
That being said, this means the Warriors come into tonight’s game just 1 game up for the 1 spot and at full strength and at home, feels like a short spread under the circumstances of GSW possibly ceding their home at the top of the West. Warriors have shot over 44% from deep against the Nuggets this season and at full strength present one of the league’s best abilities to neutralize the all purpose prowess of the Joker. The Nuggs regularly score 7+ less points on the road compared to in Denver and had an EFG% 20 points less than the Dubs in the last game…64%!! to 44% while giving up and offensive efficiency of 120.
Look for a very motivated Warriors team to jump out fast and big early then hold a high double digit lead throughout frustrating and exhausting the Nuggs in what is an actually meaningful regular season game for Golden State…for the first time since…..hmmmm.
5% March Madness TUESDAY Night Bomb!!
Dr. Chuck finished his first month at SportsMemo and grand totaled almost 16 Units! With NBA/NHL regular seasons coming to a close and playoffs coming soon plus MLB underway and the end of CBB tournaments, I hope to double the positive units for my second-straight month.
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