Sunday Night Football on Week 5 of the NFL schedule features the battle for Texas between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans. As of Wednesday, October 3, the Texans are -3.5 home favorites with a handful of -3’s in the market at -120. In a game where points may be difficult to come by, I’m looking to back Houston.

The Dallas Cowboys Need Explosiveness

Dallas ranks 27th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 5.8 (Houston is 7th at 7.9). Cole Beasley is the only Cowboys wide receiver with over 100 yards on the season, and more than ten catches. Dallas’ top three receivers are Beasley, running back Ezekiel Elliott and tight end Geoff Swaim. Dak Prescott hasn’t developed much chemistry with his outside receivers, making Dallas quite predictable on offense.

The Houston Texans are Better

Sometimes, you don’t need to get cute with the headlines. With the exception of rushing the football, the Houston Texans are better than the Dallas Cowboys in every facet of the game. Take a look at Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings: Houston is power ranked 13th, Dallas is 24th. Offensive efficiency: Houston is 18th, Dallas is 23rd. Defensive efficiency: Houston is 18th, Dallas is 20th. Special teams efficiency: Houston is third, Dallas is 15th.

In Houston’s three losses, they had 48 more yards than the Giants, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Against Tennessee, the Texans had 154 more yards with six more first downs, but lost the turnover battle 1-0. Deshaun Watson needed a couple weeks to get his footing after last year’s knee injury, but the offense was certainly clicking last week at Indianapolis. As of this writing, -3’s are available at CRIS, 5Dimes, and CG Technology. Shop around. Make sure you’re getting the best price. But if you have a -3 in your hand at game time, I think you’re in pretty good shape with the Houston Texans taking down the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night football.

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