Championship Free Play: Swansea City at Derby County

My models suggest a 59% chance for Derby County to win this match and at the current +125 odds, that presents us very good value. Derby finished 6th in the Championship last year, enough to make the playoff for the last Premier League promotion for this season, but fell just short, losing to Aston Villa in the final. They had a strong +15 goal differential with most of their success coming at home where they sported a 13W-7D-3L record and +20 goal differential. They got their season started in a strong way with a 2-1 road win at Huddersfield who were relegated from the Premier League last season.

Event: Swansea City at Derby County
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: August 10, 2019 10AM EDT
Play: Derby County (+125)

Swansea also won their opener, 2-1 at home over Hull. Last season saw Swansea finish mid-table at #10 with a +3 goal differential on the year. They struggled on the road however with just a 6W-5D-12L record and a -11 goal differential.

Derby won 2-1 at home over Swansea last year and doubled the shot attempts of Swansea, taking 16 attempts with 4 on goal compared to just 7 attempts with 2 on goal for Swansea while playing them very evenly on the road in a 1-1 draw.

I think we have a solid chance at seeing a Derby home win here as they only need to win 45% of the time to break-even on these odds. Take the value.

*1-UNIT* TAKE DERBY ML

****************************************

Week 1 EPL 5% Play
The Premier League is back and Borrman looks to get an early jump on the season with this 5% TOP Rated Play. Borrman is RED HOT right now with his soccer picks, going 11-1 over the last week as he has rolled out his new soccer models for the 2019-20 season. Don’t miss this Saturday morning EPL 5% TOP Rated Play of the Week!

****************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

  • Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
  • Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
  • Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!

Nick Borrman

Nick Borro has carved out a name for himself betting on soccer. He fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, Borro uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.Unlike professional sports in the United States, the best players in the world reside in Europe’s big five leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A,as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all The Champions League. Here is where you will find Borro focusing his attention during the fall to spring season.Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. MLS is now ahead of both the NHL and NBA in average fan attendance per game and continues to grow, seeing expansion teams added to the league in three of the last four years, as well as future expansion teams scheduled to be added in both 2019 and 2020.Borro has been around sports his entire life. He grew up playing basketball, football and golf, and eventually found his career working in the golf business as a Class A PGA Professional.Join Borro to beat the industry in the biggest professional sport in the world.

Nick Borrman has 22 posts and counting. See all posts by Nick Borrman

Leave a Reply