Premier League Free Pick: Manchester City at Burnley

With only three weeks remaining in the season, you have to be careful as half the teams don’t have anything to play for at this point. That being said, I like Burnley at home catching +2.25 goals this week against Manchester City.

Event: Manchester City at Burnley
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 28, 2019 9AM EDT
Play: Burnley +2.25 (-118)

Man City is in one of the closest titles races in the Premier League in quite some time, just two points behind Liverpool but actually have one more game to play with four remaining compared to three for Liverpool. If they win out, they will be the champions again. Their biggest hurdle is actually today, they play Manchester United at United. If they can win that game they will be in the driver’s seat as their last three games are at Burnley and Brighton and at home against Leicester. But I don’t care much about the result of today’s game as a basis for this play on Sunday, I just think it’s too much.

Burnley is safe to stay in the Premier League for next season, well technically they need 1 point to guarantee it, but it’s highly unlikely they lose all three games while Cardiff win all three games and they make up a 17 goal differential between the teams.

But, don’t expect them to lay down here. Just look at their result last weekend as they were able to draw 2-2 at Chelsea which was crucial for hurting Chelsea’s chances at a Top-4 spot and Champions League promotion. Burnley had also won three straight games before that, so they are unbeaten in their last four. While I don’t think they will be able to win this match, I do think they can keep this game close enough to cover. City did beat Burnley 5-0 in the reverse fixture but have failed to cover this number in their last three trips here. Including that game, Burnley has only lost against this number three times this season, and have been playing better the second half of the season. In 2019 calendar year, they have a 8-4-5 overall record in all competitions.

City is stacked up and down the roster but they are not covering numbers like this very often. They have not covered against this number in their last 8 games in all competitions and only once in their last 14 games and that was at home.

TAKE BURNLEY +2.25

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Nick Borrman

Nick Borro has carved out a name for himself betting on soccer. He fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, Borro uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.Unlike professional sports in the United States, the best players in the world reside in Europe’s big five leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A,as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all The Champions League. Here is where you will find Borro focusing his attention during the fall to spring season.Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. MLS is now ahead of both the NHL and NBA in average fan attendance per game and continues to grow, seeing expansion teams added to the league in three of the last four years, as well as future expansion teams scheduled to be added in both 2019 and 2020.Borro has been around sports his entire life. He grew up playing basketball, football and golf, and eventually found his career working in the golf business as a Class A PGA Professional.Join Borro to beat the industry in the biggest professional sport in the world.

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